Polymarket and Kalshi Crush Sportsbooks in NFL Week 1 App Downloads
Key Points
- Sensor Tower estimated roughly 3 million gaming app downloads during NFL Week 1, up 11% year over year, with prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi leading the field.
- Polymarket recorded approximately 762,000 downloads and Kalshi 592,000, compared with 415,000 for DraftKings and 265,000 for FanDuel.
- DraftKings downloads fell 46% year over year and FanDuel dropped 36%, even as the overall gaming app download pool expanded.
- Novig recorded only 28,000 downloads but set consecutive trading volume records over opening weekend, including $69.1 million on Sunday.
Polymarket and Kalshi Took 45% of NFL Week 1 App Downloads
Prediction markets grabbed the top two spots in one of the most competitive customer acquisition weeks on the U.S. betting calendar.
Sensor Tower estimated roughly 3 million gaming app downloads during NFL Week 1, an 11% increase from the comparable week last year. Polymarket led all tracked apps with approximately 762,000 downloads, followed by Kalshi at 592,000.
DraftKings finished third with about 415,000 downloads, FanDuel recorded 265,000 and Sleeper reached 239,000. No other tracked platform topped 105,000.
Combined, Polymarket and Kalshi generated approximately 1.35 million downloads, or about 45% of the tracked total. DraftKings and FanDuel combined for roughly 680,000.
DraftKings and FanDuel Lost Ground as the Category Grew
The year-over-year gap widened as the overall market expanded. DraftKings downloads fell 46% from the previous NFL Week 1 and FanDuel declined 36%, while Sensor Tower estimated total tracked gaming app downloads increased 11%.
Polymarket and Kalshi backed their acquisition push with major campaigns timed around football's return. Polymarket launched a football-focused campaign featuring LeBron James, Eli Manning, Derek Jeter and other sports figures, while Kalshi rolled out a campaign featuring Pete Sampras alongside separate work with Marshawn Lynch.
FanDuel still opened the season with record engagement from its sportsbook audience. In a Sept. 14 company post, FanDuel said it recorded its biggest NFL regular-season Sunday ever by active customers.
GeoComply reported that geolocation checks across its U.S. sportsbook network jumped nearly 176% from the final Sunday before kickoff. The company recorded 99.8 million checks and approximately 135,700 new account registrations, with sign-ups increasing more than 310%.
Novig Set Consecutive Trading Records During Opening Weekend
Novig was much further down the download rankings with approximately 28,000 installs - putting it at the level of BetRivers. Its trading volume, however, was considerably more competitive.
Aldrin Research data showed Novig setting consecutive platform records with $66.1 million in trading volume Saturday and $69.1 million Sunday. Novig accounted for about 5.7% of reported NFL prediction market trading volume Sunday.
The records came only five weeks after Novig launched nationally. The sports-focused platform reported more than $125 million in notional trading volume during its first week, and CEO Jacob Fortinsky said Sept. 15 that Novig had since crossed $1 billion in lifetime volume.
Novig also launched its first national advertising campaign immediately before Week 1, bringing in Sydney Sweeney as both the face of the campaign and a strategic partner and equity holder. The campaign is running nationally across digital, social, online video and out-of-home placements throughout football season.
Why This Matters for Bettors
For bettors, the immediate consequence is a much more crowded fight for their attention.
Polymarket and Kalshi showing that they can generate more Week 1 installs than DraftKings and FanDuel gives every operator another reason to compete harder on pricing, promotions, onboarding and product - rather than relying on existing sportsbook brand recognition. A bettor looking for NFL action now has a growing number of platforms trying to earn the same deposit or trading balance.
The download numbers also expose a potential weakness in the sportsbook industry's long-standing acquisition advantage. DraftKings and FanDuel have enormous existing customer bases, mature products and years of brand recognition. Week 1 showed that those advantages do not automatically translate into controlling every new distribution channel.
Polymarket and Kalshi are now competing with the sportsbook leaders on two fronts: against their established betting businesses and against prediction products carrying the DraftKings and FanDuel brands. Week 1 gave the prediction market incumbents the early advantage.
Novig's opening weekend adds another layer. Polymarket and Kalshi currently dominate prediction market acquisition, but a five-week-old sports-focused platform still produced consecutive record trading days and more than $135 million in weekend volume. NFL demand is giving smaller entrants enough activity to establish themselves quickly.
The market is becoming more fragmented at the exact moment football produces its biggest annual rush of betting customers. For bettors, that means more places competing for the same action. For operators, it means the cost of owning the NFL customer relationship is moving higher.
What Happens Next
September app rankings will show whether Polymarket and Kalshi can sustain their Week 1 acquisition lead once the opening-week marketing surge passes. Weekly active users and trading activity will provide the next indication of how much of that audience sticks.
Meanwhile, ongoing regulatory fights over sports prediction markets remain capable of changing where platforms such as Kalshi can compete.
Cole cut his teeth as a sportswriter in Texas, covering everything from Longhorns games to small-town Friday night lights. A lifelong bettor stuck with offshore books for over a decade thanks to Texas' slow path to legalization, he eventually found his way into the world of social sportsbooks - where he uncovered a fast-growing, community of bettors.
Today, he writes for the millions of Americans in states without legal books, helping them explore safe ways to bet without running afoul of the law.
As editor-in-chief, he aims to keep BettingScanner honest, human, and grounded in what bettors actually care about: fairness, fun, and finding your lane - even when the state won’t give you one.
