Kalshi's Midterms Hit $2.5B, but Sports Still Run the Show
Key Points
- Kalshi's midterm markets surpassed $2.5 billion in total trading volume, exceeding the exchange's election activity during the 2024 presidential cycle.
- Election trading reached a record $726.9 million on November 3, nearly three times the previous daily high.
- Despite that growth, elections accounted for just 3% of Kalshi's reported volume over the surrounding 10-day period, compared with $25.3 billion in combos and $6.1 billion in standalone sports contracts.
- Five major political markets generated approximately $571 million in trading during the final seven days, illustrating how heavily activity concentrated around prominent races.
Kalshi's Midterm Election Trading Breaks Previous Records
Kalshi's 2026 midterm election markets generated approximately $2.5 billion in cumulative notional trading volume by November 4, setting a new benchmark for political trading on the exchange.
The milestone follows intense activity around congressional control, closely contested Senate races and gubernatorial elections as voters headed to the polls on November 3.
The total comfortably surpassed Kalshi's trading volume during the 2024 presidential election cycle, when Donald Trump's victory helped introduce political prediction markets to a much broader audience. This growth is particularly significant given that these midterm elections did not include a presidential contest, traditionally the biggest attraction in American political betting.
Kalshi had already highlighted the surge in an October company announcement, reporting that election trading was growing six times faster than football volume compared with 2025.
The exchange offered markets covering every Senate, House and gubernatorial race, giving traders access to individual contests alongside broader questions about control of Congress.
Sports and Combos Still Dominate Kalshi's Trading Volume
The record-breaking election figures become considerably more interesting when compared with activity across the rest of Kalshi's exchange.
During the 10 days ending November 3, election contracts generated approximately $1.1 billion in notional trading volume, accounting for just 3% of Kalshi's total. Over the same period, parlay-style combination contracts produced approximately $25.3 billion, while standalone sports markets contributed another $6.1 billion, according to trading figures tracked by TickerTracker.
That translates to roughly $23 in combo trading for every $1 recorded in the elections category. Even excluding combinations entirely, standalone sports contracts generated about 5.5 times more trading volume than elections.
Kalshi's combo product allows customers to combine multiple outcomes into a single contract, similar to parlays at conventional sportsbooks. Although the category can include non-sports events, sports combinations have historically accounted for most of its activity, making the product a central driver of the exchange's trading growth.
The disparity is especially striking given the importance of the midterms. Kalshi was experiencing an exceptional period of political trading, yet the volume generated did not even come close to its sports-oriented markets.
Even Election Day Could Not Close the Gap
Election trading reached its highest recorded daily volume on November 3, when Kalshi processed approximately $726.9 million in contracts in its elections category, which accounts to nearly three times the previous daily record of $243.5 million, established during the 2024 presidential election.
Election contracts accounted for 17.5% of Kalshi's approximately $4.15 billion in total trading volume that Tuesday, a substantial increase from the category's 3% share over the broader 10-day period. Roughly two-thirds of the entire 10-day election total was recorded on Election Day alone.
Nevertheless, combo markets generated approximately $2.43 billion on November 3, more than 3.3 times the election volume. Even during the exchange's biggest political trading day on record, combinations retained a commanding lead.
A Handful of Political Markets Captured Most of the Trading
Election trading was also heavily concentrated among a relatively small group of closely watched contests.
Figures for the seven days ending November 3 show that the Texas Senate race generated approximately $141 million in notional volume, followed by House control at $132 million, congressional balance of power at $105 million, the Texas governor election at $98 million and Senate control at $95 million.
Together, those five markets accounted for approximately $571 million, representing nearly 56% of the $1.03 billion traded in the elections category during that seven-day period.
The concentration illustrates both the appeal and limitations of political trading. High-profile races attract significant liquidity as traders react to polling, campaign developments and emerging results, while smaller contests may struggle to generate comparable participation.
That concentration can affect execution and pricing. An active market with competing orders generally provides more opportunities to enter or exit positions, while thinner political contracts can carry wider spreads and make larger trades more difficult to complete at the displayed price.
Why This Matters For Bettors
Kalshi's midterm performance is a significant milestone for political prediction markets. Generating $2.5 billion in trading during a non-presidential election cycle suggests that participation has expanded well beyond the novelty surrounding the 2024 presidential race. Traders are increasingly willing to commit money to congressional and state elections, while a growing audience follows market probabilities as an alternative measure of political expectations.
That broader audience could prove just as valuable as the trading activity itself. In October, Kalshi disclosed that viewers outnumbered traders five to one across its midterm markets. Political contracts have become a way for the exchange to reach people who may never have considered opening a trading account, particularly through its growing presence in mainstream election coverage.
For bettors interested in political markets, that visibility is encouraging. Greater participation can support deeper markets, more competitive pricing and broader selections of tradable outcomes. However, the concentration of volume among a handful of major races suggests those benefits will remain unevenly distributed.
The comparison with sports, however, reveals something considerably more important about Kalshi's business. On the biggest political trading day in the exchange's history, parlay-style combinations still generated more than three times the election volume. Across the surrounding 10 days, standalone sports contracts alone produced more than five times as much activity as elections, even before accounting for the enormous combo category. Political interest was at a record high, yet sports-oriented trading continued to dominate.
For a platform built around the idea that virtually anything can become a tradable market, those proportions raise a fundamental question about how much of the prediction market industry's growth actually depends on sports.
Elections are arguably among the strongest use cases for prediction markets, combining public interest, competing forecasts and outcomes that can be independently verified. Kalshi has now demonstrated that political trading can attract billions of dollars in activity, but even its most successful election cycle reveals a remarkable concentration of demand elsewhere.
What Happens Next
With the midterm elections concluded, the next test for Kalshi will be how much political trading activity survives once the immediate interest in congressional control and election results fades.
The exchange will have opportunities to sustain engagement through future elections and other political contracts, while its media partnerships could continue introducing new audiences to prediction markets. Whether that visibility translates into regular trading outside major election cycles remains an important question.
Meanwhile, sports and combination contracts will remain central to understanding Kalshi's growth, particularly as legal challenges over sports event contracts continue.
Cole cut his teeth as a sportswriter in Texas, covering everything from Longhorns games to small-town Friday night lights. A lifelong bettor stuck with offshore books for over a decade thanks to Texas' slow path to legalization, he eventually found his way into the world of social sportsbooks - where he uncovered a fast-growing, community of bettors.
Today, he writes for the millions of Americans in states without legal books, helping them explore safe ways to bet without running afoul of the law.
As editor-in-chief, he aims to keep BettingScanner honest, human, and grounded in what bettors actually care about: fairness, fun, and finding your lane - even when the state won’t give you one.
