Kalshi’s Prediction Market Volume Is Now Bigger Than BetMGM And Caesars
Key Facts
- Eilers & Krejcik Gaming data found Kalshi would rank fourth among U.S. operators on an adjusted handle-per-adult basis, behind DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics.
- The same ranking puts Kalshi ahead of BetMGM, Caesars, bet365, BetRivers, and theScore Bet.
- U.S. sports prediction markets reached an estimated $2 billion in monthly handle-equivalent trading volume in March, or roughly 11% of combined online sports betting and prediction market activity.
- EKG projects U.S. prediction market handle-equivalent activity could reach about $34 billion in 2026, nearing 20% of trailing 12-month sportsbook handle.
Kalshi’s Growth Now Rivals Top U.S. Sportsbooks By Handle
Kalshi would now rank as the fourth-largest U.S. sportsbook by adjusted handle-per-adult, according to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming data.
The only operators ahead of it are DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics. More importantly, Kalshi now sits ahead of BetMGM, Caesars, bet365, BetRivers, and theScore Bet.
The numbers don't just show category growth. They show Kalshi has already moved past several established, licensed sportsbook brands that have spent years acquiring customers in the regulated U.S. betting market.
EKG’s comparison uses adjusted handle-per-adult rather than raw handle, which helps account for the adult population each product can reach. That matters because Kalshi does not operate under the same state-by-state sportsbook map, especially in states where online sports betting remains unavailable.
The $2 Billion Month Is The Real Story
The March volume number gives the ranking more weight.
U.S. sports prediction market activity reached an estimated $2 billion in monthly handle-equivalent trading volume, according to the EKG study. That represented about 11% of combined activity when measured against online sports betting.
Prediction market volume is not identical to sportsbook handle. Exchange-style trading can create repeat volume in ways traditional sportsbook wagers do not, so the comparison needs a caveat.
Even so, $2 billion in a single month is a serious demand signal, especially in March. The NCAA Tournament makes March one of the strongest sports betting months on the calendar, which means prediction markets were not growing in a quiet window. They captured meaningful sports-related activity during one of the industry’s biggest betting periods.
At that scale, prediction markets can't be dismissed as just attracting novelty bets or political-market users. They are pulling enough sports-related money to show up as a meaningful slice of the broader online betting market.
The 2026 Projection Puts A Bigger Number On The Threat
EKG’s projection that U.S. prediction market activity could reach approximately $34 billion in 2026 is the kind of number that changes how the category is discussed. That figure would be near 20% of trailing 12-month sportsbook handle.
That does not mean prediction markets are about to overtake sportsbooks. FanDuel and DraftKings still dominate the regulated U.S. sports betting market, with Casino Reports data showing the two operators combined for 72.3% of nationwide regulated sportsbook handle in its latest available market-share analysis.
But $34 billion is too large to dismiss as experimental traffic. To put that into perspective, the March run-rate alone would imply about $24 billion annualized if volume simply held at $2 billion per month. A $34 billion projection implies either continued user growth, stronger seasonal peaks, broader product adoption, or some combination of all three.
Why This Matters For Bettors
For bettors, the most immediate impact is liquidity. More volume usually means deeper markets, more active price movement, and a better chance that users can enter and exit positions without getting stuck in thin markets.
That does not automatically make Kalshi better for sports betting than a sportsbook, but it does make the product more attractive for bettors who care about price, timing, and market depth.
That is where the competitive pressure starts. Sportsbooks have spent years competing against each other with sign-up offers, odds boosts, loyalty programs, same-game parlays, and state-by-state launches. Kalshi introduces a different kind of pressure: not just another sportsbook fighting for market share, but a different product model fighting for the same betting wallet.
The key question is whether prediction market handle is mostly additive or substitutive. If most of the volume is coming from states without legal online sports betting, Kalshi is exposing demand that regulated sportsbooks cannot currently reach. That would make prediction markets less of a direct threat to FanDuel and DraftKings today, but a meaningful signal for lawmakers and operators about how much betting appetite exists outside the current legal market.
If the volume starts building inside mature sportsbook states, then the issue is not just access. It means some bettors may prefer exchange-style pricing, broader market availability, or the ability to trade positions instead of placing a traditional sportsbook wager. That would create a more direct competitive problem for second-tier operators already fighting uphill against FanDuel and DraftKings.
For now, the cleanest read is this: prediction markets are proving that sports betting demand is larger than the regulated sportsbook map makes it look. Some of that demand may eventually flow into sportsbooks if more states legalize mobile betting. Some of it may stay with prediction markets because users like the exchange format. Either way, the industry now has a new benchmark to watch.
What Happens Next
The next useful data point is whether prediction market volume holds after March. If the category drops sharply outside the NCAA Tournament window, then March may look more like a peak-event surge. If volume stays elevated through slower sports months, the $34 billion projection becomes easier to believe.
The second thing to watch is whether growth remains concentrated in no-sportsbook states. If Kalshi’s edge is mostly access, then legalization in major states could eventually redirect some demand back toward traditional books. If Kalshi keeps growing in states where sportsbooks are already live, then the issue becomes more direct: bettors are choosing the format, not just the availability.
The third thing to watch is sportsbook response. DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics entering prediction markets tells us the major operators see enough volume to justify a seat at the table. The next phase will show whether more operators hop in on the prediction markets bandwagon, or they keep trying to compete exclusively through the licensed sports betting lane.
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Cole cut his teeth as a sportswriter in Texas, covering everything from Longhorns games to small-town Friday night lights. A lifelong bettor stuck with offshore books for over a decade thanks to Texas' slow path to legalization, he eventually found his way into the world of social sportsbooks - where he uncovered a fast-growing, community of bettors.
Today, he writes for the millions of Americans in states without legal books, helping them explore safe ways to bet without running afoul of the law.
As editor-in-chief, he aims to keep BettingScanner honest, human, and grounded in what bettors actually care about: fairness, fun, and finding your lane - even when the state won’t give you one.
