35% of Bettors Say Prediction Markets Have Cut Their Sportsbook Use
Key Points
- Sixty percent of respondents said prediction markets have changed how often they use sportsbooks
- 35% of them say they use sportsbooks less often and 25% say they use sportsbooks and prediction markets for different events.
- More than half - 53% - said they always or often compare prediction markets or gaming platforms before participating.
- Trust and reputation, ease of use and payouts or odds were the three leading factors consumers said influence platform choice.
Fullstory Survey Finds Prediction Markets Are Changing Sportsbook Behavior
A new Fullstory consumer survey is putting a number on one of the biggest questions facing the U.S. betting industry: whether the rapid growth of prediction markets is beginning to change how people use traditional sportsbooks.
The 2026 Gambling & Gaming Survey was conducted in September by a third-party research provider and included more than 1,000 U.S. consumers. Sixty percent of respondents said prediction markets had changed how often they use sportsbooks.
Within that group, 35% said they now use sportsbooks less often. Another 25% said they use sportsbooks and prediction markets for different types of events.
Sports Are Already a Major Prediction Market Use Case
The overlap becomes more significant when looking at what prediction market users are actually trading.
Sports were the most popular category among prediction market users in Fullstory's survey, selected by 62% of respondents. Financial or economic events followed at 42%, with politics and elections at 41%.
That puts prediction markets into increasingly direct competition for the same sports consumer rather than confining them to elections, economics or novelty events. For bettors who already have multiple apps on their phones, choosing where to put a position has effectively become another version of line shopping.
Jason Wolf, president of Fullstory, said in the company's release that consumers are being presented with more ways to participate in online gaming, "creating a more competitive landscape."
Bettors Are Comparing More Than Odds
Fullstory found 53% of respondents always or often compare prediction markets or gaming platforms before participating.
Price still matters, but it was not the top consideration. Trust and reputation led at 60%, followed closely by ease of use at 59%. Potential payouts or odds ranked third at 51%.
The user experience numbers were even harder to ignore. Seventy-seven percent said they had switched gaming platforms because of the experience, while 83% said a negative digital experience could make them stop using a platform.
For operators, that expands the competitive field beyond who offers the best number on Sunday afternoon. Registration, deposits, navigation, market discovery, speed and clarity can all become reasons to move action elsewhere.
The Survey Does Not Measure Actual Sportsbook Cannibalization
The 35% figure is substantial, but it needs to be read for what it is: a report of how consumers say their behavior has changed.
Fullstory's published methodology does not provide transaction data that would show how much money those respondents previously wagered at sportsbooks, how much they moved to prediction markets or whether their total betting activity increased or decreased.
Operator data also makes a simple cannibalization narrative difficult to establish. DraftKings reported $14.08 billion in sportsbook handle during the first quarter of 2026, up 1.5% from the same period a year earlier, even after launching its prediction markets offering in December 2025.
DraftKings changed its reporting in the second quarter to a broader "Sports Consumer Volume" metric combining sportsbook wagers and prediction market trades. That figure grew 14.5% year over year to $13.14 billion, but the combined reporting means it cannot show whether sportsbook handle itself rose or fell during the quarter.
Why This Matters For Bettors
When consumers are willing to compare sportsbooks and prediction markets before putting money down, operators have more incentive to reduce friction and give users reasons to stay. That can show up through better market discovery, promotions and more competitive pricing.
The survey also suggests prediction markets are becoming part of the regular shopping process for a meaningful share of users. That is especially relevant because sports were the leading prediction market category among respondents. The platforms are increasingly meeting sportsbooks on their home turf.
The broader industry question is how much of that behavior represents substitution and how much represents expansion. A bettor who moves $100 from a sportsbook to a prediction market represents genuine cannibalization. Someone who keeps the same sportsbook activity and adds another $100 of prediction market trades represents market growth. Fullstory's survey cannot separate those two behaviors.
That measurement problem will become more important as sportsbook companies build prediction products of their own. DraftKings already combines sportsbook and prediction activity within its Sports Consumer Volume metric, making the customer relationship increasingly more useful to operators than a strict product-by-product distinction.
For traditional sportsbooks, Fullstory's UX findings may ultimately be as important as the 35% number. Consumers who can move between several betting formats with little friction have less reason to tolerate a slow app, confusing market presentation or poor payout experience. Loyalty becomes harder to assume when the next platform is already sitting beside the sportsbook icon.
What Happens Next
The next useful evidence will come from actual wagering and customer data rather than another survey. Operator filings, state sportsbook reports and any future disclosures separating prediction market activity from sportsbook wagering will provide a clearer picture of whether money is truly moving between the two products.
Sportsbooks also have an obvious incentive to improve the parts of the experience they can control. Fullstory's findings suggest trust, usability and pricing are already being evaluated together by consumers.
Prediction markets, meanwhile, will continue testing how far they can expand into sports without being treated by consumers as a separate category at all. If bettors increasingly shop both products before placing a position, operators on either side will be competing for the same customer session.
Cole cut his teeth as a sportswriter in Texas, covering everything from Longhorns games to small-town Friday night lights. A lifelong bettor stuck with offshore books for over a decade thanks to Texas' slow path to legalization, he eventually found his way into the world of social sportsbooks - where he uncovered a fast-growing, community of bettors.
Today, he writes for the millions of Americans in states without legal books, helping them explore safe ways to bet without running afoul of the law.
As editor-in-chief, he aims to keep BettingScanner honest, human, and grounded in what bettors actually care about: fairness, fun, and finding your lane - even when the state won’t give you one.
