18-to-20-Year-Olds Drove an Estimated $5.1B in Kalshi Sports Trading
Key Points
- The calculation starts with a since-altered Kalshi webpage saying 18-to-20-year-olds represented 4% of total trading volume, rather than current customer-level age data.
- The estimate puts a dollar figure on a major regulatory difference between prediction markets and sportsbooks: Kalshi accepts customers from age 18, while sports betting is limited to 21+ in 35 of 40 regulated jurisdictions.
- The NBA has already urged the CFTC to prohibit sports prediction contract trading by anyone under 21.
AGA Puts a $5.13B Figure on Kalshi’s Youngest Traders
The American Gaming Association has launched a tracker estimating that Kalshi users between 18 and 20 years old have generated more than $5.132 billion in sports trading volume.
The tracker gives the regulated gaming industry a striking number for an argument it has been making for months: prediction markets can offer sports contracts to adults who are still too young to open accounts with most regulated sportsbooks.
The AGA reinforced that point in a September 4 statement, saying the estimated volume comes from an age group below the legal sports betting age in 35 of the 40 jurisdictions where wagering is regulated.
AGA Built the Estimate From Kalshi’s Old 4% Age Figure
The $5.132 billion figure does not come from a new release of Kalshi customer records. The AGA says a since-altered Kalshi webpage previously stated that “only 4%” of its trading volume came from users ages 18 to 20, and the association is using that percentage as the basis for its sports-volume estimate.
The AGA’s current tracker does not publish a customer-level age dataset or a full calculation that independently verifies how much sports trading those users actually generated. Its September 4 release separately says sports account for about 80% of Kalshi’s overall volume and repeats the estimated $5.1 billion figure for the 18-to-20 cohort.
That leaves some important limits around the headline number. Kalshi’s age mix may have changed since the original 4% figure was published, and the public methodology does not establish that sports traders have the same age distribution as Kalshi’s overall customer base.
Trading volume also should not be confused with customer losses or Kalshi revenue. The figure describes estimated market activity, which makes it useful for understanding potential scale without showing how much money those traders ultimately won or lost.
The Tracker Is Also Part of the AGA’s Regulatory Campaign
The AGA is making no attempt to hide its position. Its tracker describes sports event contracts as “backdoor sports betting,” while AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said in a September 4 statement that prediction market platforms are “dangerously misleading consumers” by presenting sports wagers as investments.
That framing is relevant when evaluating the estimate. The AGA represents the regulated gaming industry, which is competing with prediction markets for sports activity while arguing that those platforms should face comparable age requirements, taxes and consumer protections.
The advocacy behind the tracker does not erase the underlying age gap. It does mean the $5.132 billion figure deserves to be described for what it is: an industry estimate built from an older Kalshi disclosure rather than a direct measurement supplied by the exchange.
Kalshi Allows 18+ Trading and Says It Verifies Customer Ages
Kalshi’s current rules say an individual must be at least 18 years old and complete identity verification when required. In May, the company announced additional customer-protection measures and said it “prohibits minors from trading,” using know-your-customer checks to prevent unauthorized access.
That still leaves a three-year window in which many Americans can trade Kalshi sports contracts but cannot legally wager through a traditional sportsbook in their jurisdiction. For the AGA, that window has become one of the simplest ways to argue that sports prediction markets are competing under materially different rules.
Kalshi approaches the issue from the financial-market side. Its published materials describe its contracts as federally regulated derivatives and require users to be 18, rather than voluntarily adopting the 21+ standard common to the regulated sportsbook industry.
Why This Matters for Bettors
For bettors between 18 and 20, the impact is unusually direct. Kalshi provides access to sports markets during a period when most regulated sportsbook doors are still closed, so any move toward a 21+ federal standard would remove a product that this group can currently use.
For bettors already over 21, the immediate effect is smaller. But a younger customer base can contribute volume and liquidity, and restrictions on who can participate can eventually affect the depth, pricing and range of markets available to everyone using the platform.
The Age Gap Is Both a Competitive Advantage and a Regulatory Liability
From a competitive standpoint, the 18+ threshold gives prediction markets access to customers that most licensed sportsbooks cannot legally acquire yet. If younger users become accustomed to trading sports on Kalshi before their 21st birthdays, sportsbooks are no longer automatically getting the first opportunity to build those customer relationships.
The same advantage gives opponents an unusually clean regulatory argument. Questions about swaps, federal preemption and derivatives law get complicated quickly; explaining why an 18-year-old can trade an NFL outcome on one app but cannot wager on the same game through a licensed sportsbook is much easier.
The AGA’s $5.1 billion estimate is designed to put scale behind that argument. Even allowing for its methodological limitations, a number in the billions makes it harder to characterize the 18-to-20 market as a minor edge case.
Sports Leagues Are Already Pushing for a 21+ Standard
The regulated gaming industry is not alone in raising the age issue. In an April 30 comment filed with the CFTC, NBA Executive Vice President and Assistant General Counsel Dan Spillane noted that sports event contract trading was available from age 18 while most legal sports betting begins at 21.
Spillane urged the Commission to “categorically prohibit” sports prediction contract trading by people under 21 and, short of that, restrict direct marketing to the 18-to-20 age group. The PGA Tour also asked the CFTC to increase the minimum age for sports event contracts to 21.
For prediction market operators, that creates pressure from several directions at once. Sportsbook interests have a competitive reason to close the age gap, while leagues can frame the same proposal around consumer protection and integrity.
What Happens Next
The immediate question is whether the 18+ standard survives as sports prediction markets mature. Kalshi’s published eligibility rules still allow accounts from age 18, while the CFTC’s broader prediction market rulemaking has already created a formal venue for the NBA, PGA Tour and others to argue for tighter restrictions.
The AGA is also likely to keep using the tracker as Kalshi’s sports volume grows. If the association continues applying the same 4% assumption, its estimate will rise alongside platform activity even without new age-specific data - making the methodology just as important to watch as the headline number itself.
Cole cut his teeth as a sportswriter in Texas, covering everything from Longhorns games to small-town Friday night lights. A lifelong bettor stuck with offshore books for over a decade thanks to Texas' slow path to legalization, he eventually found his way into the world of social sportsbooks - where he uncovered a fast-growing, community of bettors.
Today, he writes for the millions of Americans in states without legal books, helping them explore safe ways to bet without running afoul of the law.
As editor-in-chief, he aims to keep BettingScanner honest, human, and grounded in what bettors actually care about: fairness, fun, and finding your lane - even when the state won’t give you one.
