The Cardi B Super Bowl Prediction Market Controversy - Explained
Key points
Cardi B danced and mouthed lyrics during Bad Bunny’s halftime set, raising questions about whether she “performed.”
Kalshi and Polymarket took different approaches to settling their respective markets on that question.
At least one Kalshi user has filed a formal complaint with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over how the contract was resolved.
Did Cardi B perform at the Super Bowl?
During Super Bowl LX, prediction markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket offered event contracts asking whether Cardi B would perform at the halftime show. More than tens of millions in total trading volume were placed on these markets.
Cardi B appeared on stage during Bad Bunny’s set, dancing and moving with the performers. However, she did not sing live or play an instrument, and her involvement was not part of the scheduled lineup in the way the headliners’ performances were. That made the question of whether she “performed” difficult to interpret under the specific rules of each platform.
Kalshi’s approach
Kalshi determined that the available rules did not give an objectively clear path to a binary win/loss outcome. Under Kalshi’s rulebook, dancing in the background without clear singing or instrumental performance could fall into a grey area. As a result, Kalshi invoked a discretionary rule allowing it to settle the market using the last traded price before trading was paused, rather than declaring a definitive Yes/No winner. That meant paying out partial value (e.g., about $0.26 for Yes and $0.74 for No).
Polymarket’s approach
Polymarket applied its own resolution criteria to conclude that Cardi B’s physical presence and participation during the halftime show constituted a performance, and it resolved its market in favor of the “Yes” outcome. This triggered full payouts to Yes holders on that platform.
The discrepancy put traders in the awkward position of having the same real-world event yield two incompatible outcomes depending on where the bet was placed.
Why this Matters
Prediction markets operate on event contracts that hinge on clearly defined outcomes. Unlike traditional sports bets - where the final score is judged the same across all sportsbooks - event contract outcomes depend on the specific definitions and resolution processes established by each platform.
This episode underscores three key points:
- Outcome definitions can vary widely: What counts as a “performance” is not universally interpreted across operators when the event itself is ambiguous.
- Discretionary resolution mechanisms matter: Platforms sometimes use fallback rules when contract language isn’t clear, but those can materially affect payouts.
- Trader exposure differs by platform: Users who hedge similar positions across markets may find themselves with unaligned results and financial risk.
The complaint to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission by Kalshi users who claim the company’s settlement violated the Commodity Exchange Act, highlights how real the stakes are for participants when contracts resolve unpredictably.
What happens next
- The CFTC complaint could prompt further review of how prediction markets handle ambiguous events.
- Operators may tighten contract language around subjective event definitions to avoid future disputes.
- Some traders may become more cautious about cross-platform hedging when resolution criteria diverge.
The broader takeaway is that as prediction markets evolve beyond traditional sporting outcomes into cultural and subjective events, how platforms interpret and enforce contract definitions will be as important as the questions themselves.
Ari started his gaming career as a poker grinder, then a crypto trader, before stumbling onto prediction markets. He’s now deep into betting on everything from politics to pop culture to tech layoffs. If it has uncertainty and odds, Ari’s in.
Skeptical by nature, Ari is fully convinced that the weirdest bets often hide the sharpest edges. If you’ve ever wondered whether it’s possible to beat the market by reading the news better than everyone else - Ari’s here to show you how.
